Dynamic Implementation

How does past change affect future change? That’s the nuts and bolts of a question posed on LinkedIn by Garrett Gitchell. Good question Garrett. Here’s my attempt at answering it using a diagram. Why a diagram? Well a picture paints a thousand words so they say – and hey, it’s just a little different eh?

Formal Interview vs X Factor Panel vs You Got a Better Way?

Job candidates may be hired depending on the order in which they are interviewed, in the same way X Factor contestants who sing later in the show are less likely to be voted off, research indicates. In an article published by Personnel Today, we see that researchers at Cambridge University’s Judge Business School have been investigating what gives winning game-show contestants the edge. They found that the order in which contestants perform plays an important role in their success.

Wyn Llewellyn, Director at ValueFlows Ltd, observed, “An interesting piece of research and a creative and invalid extrapolation – from X factor to recruitment process. A conflicting hypothesis might be – the later you are in the process, the more tired and jaded the selection panel will be, they may have seen a ‘star’ earlier and become biased towards them, etc.

Also consider the following; professional recruiters are working to clear selection criteria and are professionally trained to do so – the public who vote in X factor have neither of these characteristics – they just vote for who they like! Wait a minute – maybe a proportion of recruiters do that too!”

This got me thinking…

So hang on a minute. How many initial applicants for a role would you expect to be able to fulfil the requirements? 1 in 10 maybe? And how often would you expect the interview process to deliver the right results? Most experts would say that a 7 out of 10 success rate of interview process delivering right result is high. Hey, it’s nearly Christmas so let’s be generous and say 8 times out of 10.

Using these assumptions the chances of selecting the right candidate are about 2 to 1 against (and if you do turn the dial to a 7 out of 10 hit rate on interview process the odds against correct selection increase to nearly 4 to 1 against).

Let’s do the maths:

1000 applicants, 900 can not do the job, 100 can.

Of the 900 who cannot do the job, an 80% correct interview process will deliver:

720 of the 900 correctly identified as not able
180 of the 900 as able, even though they are not

Of the 100 who can do the job, an 80% correct interview process will deliver:

80 identified as able
20 identified as not able, even though they are

So if we divide the 180 incorrect able candidates by the 80 able candidates, 180/80 gives us 2.25 to 1 against.

So if the formal interview seems to correlate so poorly (if at all) with future effectiveness, well maybe we’d be better off taking our chances with Simon Cowell et al after all? At the very least this leaves me wondering if we should be considering alternative ways of connecting the right people with the right job role…what do you think?